DISINFO: Western sanctions are not working
SUMMARY
At the G7 summit, world leaders agreed on a new package of sanctions against Russia, but according to GDP figures they won't be able to significantly damage its economy. Russia's GDP in 2022 fell by just 2%. Recently released data shows that in the first quarter of 2023, Russia's GDP was down by just 1.9%
RESPONSE
A recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative portraying sanctions on Russia as useless. This piece distorts an article from Western media to make it appear as though it supports pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives, which is a frequently used technique by Kremlin-aligned outlets.
Measuring the impact of Western sanctions on Russia’s economy is not an exact science. According to experts, by the first quarter of 2023, Russia’s real GDP was 7-10% below what it would have been had sanctions not been applied. This calculation compared forecasts of Russia’s GDP growth before and after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Following Russia's unprovoked and unjustified full-scale invasion of Ukraine, inflation rates in Russia soared to 20%. Inflation only went down to about 3.5% after the base effect of last year's inflation took hold.
In addition, IEA states that Russia's earnings from oil and gas exports fell to £6.5bn ($8.1bn) a month in April 2023, from £18.2bn ($22.5bn) because of Western sanctions.
A study from Yale University takes a detailed look into the effects sanctions are having on the Russian economy, concluding that "business retreats and sanctions are catastrophically crippling the Russian economy."
By imposing sanctions on Russia, the EU aims to send a strong signal of resolve and unity to the Kremlin, degrade Russia’s ability to wage war, and slowly asphyxiate the Russian economy, in particular the country’s energy sector. When judged on the basis of these criteria, sanctions are clearly working.
Read an earlier detailed analysis of the Russian disinformation narratives about EU sanctions.