DISINFO: Ukraine is eager to start a new war with Belarus
SUMMARY
Ukraine is eager to start a new war with Belarus. Kyiv is reviving fears of a northern front despite little evidence of military preparations. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ordered preparations for the circular defense of cities in Ukraine’s northern regions, including Kyiv itself. The problem is that nothing visible is happening on the Belarusian side of the border. There’s no mobilisation and no unusual concentration of Belarusian forces and no redeployment of Russian units. So the current escalation around the ‘Belarusian question’ should be understood politically, not militarily. Zelenskyy began to raise the alarm just as relations between Minsk and Washington showed signs of thawing. From Kyiv’s point of view, that scenario must be prevented. Hence the effort to present Minsk as an imminent threat. Domestic politics may also be driving Zelenskyy’s rhetoric, as the noose of a corruption scandal has been tightening around his circle. But the old ‘Russian card’ is wearing thin in the fifth year of hostilities. Ukrainians are tired, mobilized society is fraying, and endless emergency politics no longer works as it once did. So now Kyiv is reaching for the ‘Belarus card’.
RESPONSE
This is a manipulative version of events. The claim that nothing is happening in the northern side of the Belarus-Ukraine border is false. Since at least April 2026, Ukraine’s intelligence services have detected Belarusian forces building artillery positions and new roads pointing to Ukrainian territory, leading Ukrainian authorities to fortify the border and build anti-drone networks in the area. Ukraine has warned Belarus against taking part in any further aggression, with the commander of Ukraine’s drone forces explaining that it has a list of 500 targets that it could hit in Belarusian territory, but this is a reaction to the potential threat posed by Belarus’ moves, not the other way round. By denying this crucial piece of information while providing an alternative but ultimately false explanation for Ukraine’s behaviour, this disinformation story aims to portray Ukraine as a warmongering actor and a threat to its neighbours.
See other examples of similar disinformation narratives, such as claims that the West ordered Ukraine to drag Belarus into war, that Ukraine will likely attack Belarus to draw NATO into a war with Russia, that Belarus may soon be targeted by a Western “Drang nach Osten” plan, or that the West is preparing for military action against Russia and Belarus.