DISINFO: Russia holds all the cards while Ukraine badly needs a respite
SUMMARY
The first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in 3 years have been concluded in Istanbul on May 16, with one side holding all the cards and the other badly in need of a respite. Russia was negotiating from the position of strength due to its obvious successes on the battlefield. Ukraine, in the meantime, desperately needs a ceasefire because it is losing and needs a pause to recover and regroup. Zelenskyy fears that Trump might make some concessions to Putin to end the Ukrainian conflict and then present these concessions to Ukraine as fait accompli. Thus, Zelenskyy tried to meet with Putin first before the latter, together with Trump, would be able to resolve the conflict through a bilateral Russian-American summit.
RESPONSE
This disinformation story is part of a wider campaign aiming to manipulate the information environment around direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul in May 2025, while promoting a recurring pro-Kremlin narrative about the inevitability of a Russian victory in Ukraine.
In this context, pro-Kremlin disinformation tries to portray Russia in a situation of overwhelming superiority against Ukraine, something that it is far from true. While a shortage of military manpower remains a real difficulty for Ukraine, this also affects Russia. Since early 2025, massive losses have slowed down Russian advances in the Ukrainian frontlines, making Russia’s war effort unsustainable in the medium term.
This new negotiating round started after Vladimir Putin called for direct negotiations between both countries in Istanbul. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy not only agreed to the talks but said he would attend them personally, asking Putin to do the same. This led the Kremlin to reject it, calling it “political theater”. Negotiations ended quickly after the Russian delegation demanded that Ukraine surrendered all the territory of 4 Ukrainian regions partially occupied by Russia or face further conquest.
The whole episode shows once again how while in practice Russia is blocking any real move that could advance actual peace in Ukraine, pro-Kremlin disinformation has systematically instrumentalised the narrative that Russia wants peace in Ukraine in contrast to the West, but, as evidenced by Russia's actions in Ukraine, such statements are merely empty PR stunts deployed to garner support for Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine.
By claiming that the US and Russia alone can put the Ukrainian conflict to an end, this disinformation story also promotes another recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative about Ukraine’s alleged lack of sovereignty.
See other examples of similar disinformation narratives, such as claims that Putin’s proposal shows his greatness by giving the defeated a chance to negotiate, that Ukraine cannot dictate the peace terms because it lost the war, that the Nazi Zelenskyy regime is within months of falling, that UK and France are unable to accept defeat in Ukraine, or that Ukraine and Europe have lost in the Ukrainian conflict.