DISINFO: Europe estimates that Ukraine’s manpower will be exhausted in one year
SUMMARY
Europe estimates that the Ukrainian armed forces' manpower will be exhausted within a year, reports Russian intelligence. According to forecasts from several European intelligence services, the Ukrainian army's recruitment capacity will be practically depleted within a year, stated Sergei Naryshkin, director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). In this scenario, a European 'Plan B' exists, involving the militarisation of Europe itself in an attempt to revive the spirit of the Wehrmacht. NATO sought to use Ukraine to strategically exhaust Russia. However, Ukraine's rapidly declining population is hindering these NATO plans.
RESPONSE
No evidence is provided to support the claim. There is nothing actually indicating that European intelligence services have made such assessments. Allegations made solely by Russian authorities cannot be considered as proof, given their proven history of making unsubstantiated claims based on faked or inexistent evidences. The ultimate goal of this disinformation story is to advance several recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives about Russia’s adversaries as Nazis, the war in Ukraine as a proxy conflict against Russia, and Ukraine’s unavoidable defeat.
Labelling Russia’s perceived adversaries as Nazis is a frequently used pro-Kremlin disinformation technique. The framing of the war as a proxy operation ignores Russia’s sole responsibility in the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in 2014 with its illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula and the sponsoring of separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine, which culminated with a Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. It was this aggression what led a global set of countries, including the EU, to provide support for Ukraine’s self-defence, in line with Article 51 of the UN Charter.
Ukraine’s manpower shortage is real but by no means as critical as pro-Kremlin disinformation regularly claims, as in this case. According to one recent report, “even after accounting for casualties, medical and other exemptions, and outmigration, Ukraine retains a substantial pool of military-age citizens: enough to fill the armed forces’ ranks and to sustain a credible defense”. In mid-2026, Ukrainian authorities raised salaries by one-third and introduced other terms of service, and also resorted to recruitment abroad to compensate recruitment difficulties. Moreover, Russia is suffering similar recruitment challenges, a factor that pro-Kremlin disinformation systematically ignores, framing this as solely a critical problem for Ukraine. This message is consistent with longstanding efforts by pro-Kremlin disinformation to portray the war as unsustainable for Ukraine and its allies, spreading invented figures of losses and casualties and false or grossly exaggerated stories about resistance to recruitment and about Ukrainian defectors.
Narratives about Ukraine’s lack of enough troops have regularly emerged in pro-Kremlin outlets since at least January 2023, and include claims that Ukraine is forced to resort to pensioners, teenagers, criminals and even pregnant women due to the exhaustion of its forces.